Monday, March 19, 2007

May vs MacKay - Why?

Whooee! Well friends an' foes, the gal I adore, Earth Mother Lizzie May, sez she's gonna run against Petey MacKay in the next electionvote. When Ma an' I was havin' coffee this mornin', Ma read it in the newspaper an' sez "Why would she do that?"

I ain't asked Lizzie, yet, but I might ask about the decision next time we email back'n'forth or if I see her at a Green event.

Here's a coupla reasons why she mighta made that choice.

1. She's a Nova Scotia gal. That's where her family landed an' lived after they moved here from the USA. I don't think Central Nova is her home ridin' on accounta she's from ol' CeeBee -- Cape Breton.

2. Free publicity. In 2006, the Green boss was Jimmy Harris. He ran in Trawna in the Beaches ridin'. He ran against Jack Laydown an ' Dennis (Rollin' Stones) Mills. He didn't stand a chance. The only advantage I seen at that time was the press. If Harris ran in some low-profile ridin', he'd probbly lost but he wouldn't have so much coverage like when he ran against a coupla big names who the press was followin'. I figger Lizzie'll get a lotta press by runnin' where the big MSM fellers an' gals is reportin' on PeteFeller.

3. Plannin' t' lose. Okay, I ain't sure I'm buyin' this one but I've heard it enough that I'm sayin' it's a possibility. FPTP means that we might not elect any GPC MP's. Even 25% of the popular vote won't elect an MP if the Cons or Grits get 26%. By runnin' against a popular local incumbent cabinet minister like PeteyBoy, there's a built-in excuse fer losin'.

Even though Lizzie's the gal I adore, she ain't what I would call a "consummate politician." If she were, I probbly wouldn't like her so much an' I doubt that many others would, neither. I think she made a polytickle mistake on this one. Time'll tell an' upsets are possible but the signs all point t' Lizzie losin' t' Pete.

The PR advantage of runnin' against a bigass cabinet minister mighta been a good idea if the cash-poor Greenies were as invisible as in 2004 an' 2006. That ain't the case now. I don't figger the benefits outweigh the clear electoral disadvantage. The latest polls show the Greens doing as well as the Dippers. We don't need the added free publicity. The MSM'll follow Lizzie pretty close no matter where she runs.

If she wants t' run in NS, a gotta wonder why she didn't go fer a Cape Breton seat.

I'm always yammerin' on about polyticks-as-usual an' how the Greens an' LizzieGal ain't polyticks-as-usual. I reckon this decision might be on accounta that. So far, Lizzie an' the Greens has done pretty good by marchin' t' the beat of a different polytickle drum. This is more o' the same, sez I.

I ain't sold on the idea fer Lizzie May t' run against MacKay. I hope she does well. I even hope she wins but I hope I win the lottery, too. Hopes ain't votes, though, an' elections is about gettin' the most votes -- not havin' the best hopes.

I'll support Lizzie an' I'll send her a few bucks like I done when she ran in London. I'll probbly write up a campaign song or two. I'll vote Green an' I'll cheer all the Greenie candidates an' I'll be hopin' at least one of 'em will get elected. I'm sad t' say, it probbly won't be Lizzie.



Rosie said...

I have to agree with you JimBobby. I would rather her run in a riding where she can actually get voted in. On top of that, she's taking votes away from the NDP candidate who would probably be an excellent MP and actually stands a chance against Petey.

However, tis what it is. Already, judging by the number of posts on PB and BT, she's receiving considerable attention. Maybe she's aiming for publicity to get more votes and therefore more funding for the next election.

JimBobby said...

Whooee! Dang! I been losin' too many comments today. I just lost one I wrote back atcha, RosieGal.

Yer right, sez I. The Dip's have a chance t' beat MacKay. Lizzie'll hafta get 25 times what the GPC candidate got in 2006. That ain't entirely impossible but it's a longshot, fer sure.

I'll keep doin' what I can. Mostly, that'll probbly be exposin' Pete as the world's biggest kisser of Condi's ass. Fer all his hand-holdin', he ain't got much result -- Arar's still blacklisted an' we're still bein' forced t' carry passports t' cross over inta Bushland. I hear-tell Pete's Passport Emporium's got customer's lined up around the block tryin' t' get their passports an' there's some badass security troublems with them passports.


Balbulican said...

I'm thinking that Ms. May's goal is to enhance her profile and get a national platform for her ideas: this run may be her best strategic opportunity to get the word about the Greens to a national audience.

Specifically, two things will happen:
- this will become THE riding to watch. Media LOVE David and Goliath stories, and the kicker is that Ms. May's star is rising while McKay's is falling. This will be the story that the national press follow.
- because of that level of interest, Ms. May will overcome the biggest single barrier to a Green party breakthrough. With a May/McKay face-off as the Big Story, there will be No Way to keep her out of the national televised debate.

Like it or not (and I hate the idea), that's where a terrifyingly large segment of Canada makes up its mind. The exclusion of the Greens from that forum has meant that the other parties have been able to sustain the Greens=envirokooks cliche. Once Ms. May hits the national debate, all that disappears.

I seriously think this was a clever tactical choice, with precisely that goal.